Esperanza de vida
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Item The vanishing advantage of longevity in Nicoya, Costa Rica: A cohort shif(Demographic Research, vol.49 (27, 2023) Rosero Bixby, LuisBACKGROUND The Nicoya region in Costa Rica has been identified as one of a handful of hotspots of extreme longevity. The evidence supporting this status comes mostly from observing the 1990 and 2000 decades and cohorts born before 1930. OBJECTIVE To determine how the longevity advantage of older men in Nicoya has progressed in the period 1990 to 2020 and in cohorts born from 1900 to 1950. METHODS Remaining length of life and adult mortality were estimated using new public administrative records from the electoral system and a Gompertz regression model. A new nationwide survival-time database of 550,000 adult Costa Ricans who were alive at any point during 1990–2020 was put together. RESULTS The longevity advantage of Nicoya is disappearing in a trend driven mostly by cohort effects. While Nicoyan males born in 1905 had 33% lower adult mortality rates than other Costa Ricans, those born in 1945 had 10% higher rates. The original geographic hotspot of low elderly mortality, coined the Nicoya blue zone, has decreased to a small area south of the peninsula around the corridor from Hojancha inland to the beach town of Sámara. However, Nicoyans born before 1930 who are still alive continue to show exceptionally high longevity. CONCLUSIONS Surviving Nicoyan males born before 1930 are exceptional human beings living longer than expected lives. Not so for more recent cohorts. The window of opportunity to meet and study pre-1930 individuals is closing.Item Epigenome-Wide Association Study and Epigenetic Age Acceleration Associated with Cigarette Smoking among Costa Rican Adults(Scientific Reports, Vol. 12 Núm, 2022) Cárdenas, Andrés; Ecker, Simone; Fadadu, Raj P.; Huen, Karen; Orozco, Allan; McEwen, Lisa M.; Engelbrecht, Hannah Ruth; Gladish, Nicole; Kobor, Michael S.; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Dow, William H.; Rehkopf, David H.Smoking-associated DNA methylation (DNAm) signatures are reproducible among studies of mostly European descent, with mixed evidence if smoking accelerates epigenetic aging and its relationship to longevity. We evaluated smoking-associated DNAm signatures in the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging (CRELES), including participants from the high longevity region of Nicoya. We measured genome-wide DNAm in leukocytes, tested Epigenetic Age Acceleration (EAA) from five clocks and estimates of telomere length (DNAmTL), and examined effect modification by the high longevity region. 489 participants had a mean (SD) age of 79.4 (10.8) years, and 18% were from Nicoya. Overall, 7.6% reported currently smoking, 35% were former smokers, and 57.4% never smoked. 46 CpGs and five regions (e.g. AHRR, SCARNA6/SNORD39, SNORA20, and F2RL3) were differentially methylated for current smokers. Former smokers had increased Horvath’s EAA (1.69-years; 95% CI 0.72, 2.67), Hannum’s EAA (0.77-years; 95% CI 0.01, 1.52), GrimAge (2.34-years; 95% CI1.66, 3.02), extrinsic EAA (1.27-years; 95% CI 0.34, 2.21), intrinsic EAA (1.03-years; 95% CI 0.12, 1.94) and shorter DNAmTL (− 0.04-kb; 95% CI − 0.08, − 0.01) relative to non-smokers. There was no evidence of effect modification among residents of Nicoya. Our findings recapitulate previously reported and novel smoking-associated DNAm changes in a Latino cohort.Item Derivation, internal validation, and recalibration of a cardiovascular risk score for Latin America and the Caribbean (Globorisk-LAC): A pooled analysis of cohort studies(The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 9, 2022) Stern, Dalia; Hambleton, Ian R.; Lotufo, Paulo Andrade; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Hennis, Anselm; Ferreccio, Catterina; Irazola, Vilma; Perel, Pablo; Gregg, Edward W.; Aguilar Salinas, Carlos Alberto; Álvarez Vaz, Ramón; Amadio, Marselle Bevilacqua; Baccino, Cecilia; Bambs S., Claudia; Bastos, João Luiz Dornelles; Beckles, Gloria; Bernabé Ortiz, Antonio; Bernardo, Carla; Bloch, Katia Vergetti; Blümel, Juan Enrique; Boggia, José G.; Borges, Pollyana Kássia de Oliveira; Bravo, Miguel; Brenes Camacho, Gilbert; Carbajal, Horacio A.; Casas Vásquez, Paola; Castillo Rascón, María Susana; Ceballos, Blanca H.; Colpani, Verônica; Cooper, Jackie A.; Cortés, Sandra; Cortés Valencia, Adrián; de Sá Cunha, Roberto; d'Orsi, Eleonora; Dow, William H.; Espeche, Walter G.; Fuchs, Flavio Danni; Pereira Costa Fuchs, Sandra Cristina; Godoy Agostinho Gimeno, Suely; Gómez Velasco, Donaji Verónica; González Chica, David Alejandro; González Villalpando, Clicerio; González Villalpando, María Elena; Grazioli, Gonzalo; Guerra, Ricardo Oliveira; Gutierrez, Laura E.; Herkenhoff Vieira, Fernando Luiz; Horimoto, Andrea Roseli Vancan Russo; Huidobro Muñoz, Laura Andrea; Koch, Elard S.; Lajous Loaeza, Martin; Furtado de Lima e Costa, Maria Fernanda; López Ridaura, Ruy; Campos Cavalcanti Maciel, Álvaro; Maestre, Gladys Elena; Manrique Espinoza, Betty Soledad; Marques, Larissa Pruner; Melgarejo Arias, Jesus David; Mena Camaré, Luis Javier; Mill, Jose Gerardo; Moreira, Leila Beltrami; Muñoz Velandia, Oscar Mauricio; Ono, Lariane Mortean; Oppermann, Karen; Ortiz Saavedra, Pedro José; de Paiva, Karina Mary; Viana Peixoto, Sérgio William; da Costa Pereira, Alexandre; Peres, Karen G.; de Anselmo Peres, Marco Aurelio; Ramírez Palacios, Paula; Rech, Cassiano Ricardo; Rivera Paredez, Berenice; Rodríguez Guerrero, Nohora Inés; Rojas Martínez, Maria Rosalba; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Rubinstein, Adolfo; Ruiz Morales, Álvaro de Jesus; Salazar, Martin R.; Salinas Rodríguez, Aarón; Nájera Salmerón, Jorge Alberto; Sánchez, Ramón Augusto; de Souza e Silva, Nelson Albuquerque; Nogueira da Silva, Thiago Luiz; Smeeth, Liam; Spritzer, Poli Mara; Tartaglione, Fiorella; Tartaglione, Jorge; Tello Rodríguez, Tania; Velázquez Cruz, Rafael; Cohorts Consortium of Latin America and the Caribbean (CC-LAC); Carrillo Larco, Rodrigo Martín; Miranda Montero, Juan J.; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, GoodarzBackground: Risk stratification is a cornerstone of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention and a main strategy proposed to achieve global goals of reducing premature CVD deaths. There are no cardiovascular risk scores based on data from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and it is unknown how well risk scores based on European and North American cohorts represent true risk among LAC populations. Methods: We developed a CVD (including coronary heart disease and stroke) risk score for fatal/non-fatal events using pooled data from 9 prospective cohorts with 21,378 participants and 1,202 events. We developed laboratory based (systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and smoking), and office-based (body mass index replaced total cholesterol and diabetes) models. We used Cox proportional hazards and held back a subset of participants to internally validate our models by estimating Harrell’s C-statistic and calibration slopes. Findings: The C-statistic for the laboratory-based model was 72% (70−74%), the calibration slope was 0.994 (0.934−1.055) among men and 0.852 (0.761−0.942) among women; for the office-based model the C-statistic was 71% (69−72%) and the calibration slope was 1.028 (0.980−1.076) among men and 0.811 (0.663−0.958) among women. In the pooled sample, using a 20% risk threshold, the laboratory-based model had sensitivity of 21.9% and specificity of 94.2%. Lowering the threshold to 10% increased sensitivity to 52.3% and reduced specificity to 78.7%. Interpretation: The cardiovascular risk score herein developed had adequate discrimination and calibration. The Globorisk-LAC would be more appropriate for LAC than the current global or regional risk scores. This work provides a tool to strengthen risk-based cardiovascular prevention in LAC.Item La disminución de la mortalidad de los adultos en Costa Rica(Notas de Población, Vol. 22, no. 60, 1994) Rosero Bixby, LuisEste artículo estudia la evolución histórica de la mortalidad de los adultos en Costa Rica y sus determinantes. Entre 1920 y 1990, el riesgo de muerte se redujo en 80% entre los adultos jóvenes y en 40% entre los de mayor edad. Las disminuciones más rápidas tuvieron lugar en los años cincuenta entre los adultos jóvenes y en los años ochenta entre los de edad avanzada. La aceleración de la década de los 80 ocurrió a pesar de ser éste un período de recesión económica y de deterioro de los servicios públicos de salud. La brecha de mortalidad entre los sexos emergió y se amplió debido a las mayores disminuciones de mortalidad entre las mujeres. Desde alrededor de 1960, los adultos varones enfrentan menores riesgos de muerte en Costa Rica que en países industrializados, como .Estados Unidos o Francia. Las dolencias cardíacas y el cáncer de pulmón son los componentes claves de la ventaja comparativa de Costa Rica. En contraste, la mortalidad por cáncer de estómago, infarto, diabetes, accidentes de automóvil y cáncer cérvico-uterino es comparativamente alta en este país, por lo que podría ser fuente de reducciones futuras. Hacia 1990, alrededor del 40% de las muertes entre los adultos jóvenes de Costa Rica son producto de accidentes y violencia, en tanto que el 40% de las defunciones entre los adultos mayores son de origen cardiovascular. Las patologías infecciosas y relacionadas con la nutrición (especialmente tuberculosis respiratoria y malaria) dan cuenta de tres cuartos de la disminución en la mortalidad adulta de 1951 a 1971, pero sólo de 30% a partir de este último año. Las disminuciones en las muertes cardiovasculares y accidentales lideraron la transición de la mortalidad adulta en los años setenta y ochenta. La prosperidad y estilos de vida modernos podrían ser responsables de tendencias adversas en la mortalidad, observadas especialmente en los años cincuenta y sesenta. Los patrones geográficos y las correlaciones espaciales también sugieren efectos negativos sobre la mortalidad por enfermedades cardiovasculares y diabetes. El análisis de regresión de áreas muestra que no hay asociación entre la mortalidad infantil y la de adultos en un momento determinado, las cuales parecen estar determinadas por diferentes tipos de factores.Item Adult mortality decline in Costa Rica(Adult Mortality in Latin América. Oxford University Press, 1996) Rosero Bixby, LuisCosta Rica is, along with Cuba, the country with the best health indicators in Latin America. Life expectancy at birth in Costa Rica was 77.9 years for women and 72.7 years for men in 1990, figures which are comparable with those for Western Europe and the USA. Study of the epidemiologic transition in Costa Rica has usually focused on children, reflecting the fact that the main component of mortality decline has been the prevention and control of premature deaths (Behm, 1976; Rosero-Bixby, 1986; CELADE et al., 1987; Cervantes and Raabe, 1991). The greater availability of information on child health and the young age structure of the population (in 1960, 47 per cent of the population were children under 15 years of age) have reinforced the emphasis on studying the young. This chapter shifts the previous emphasis on childhood to focus on adult mortality. The purpose is to describe the mortality transition at adult ages, to identify its key components, and to make inferences about its likely determinants. The chapter has five sections: socio-economic and public-health background of Costa Rica; the data and methods used; decline in risks of dying in two age intervals (20-49 and 50-79 years); analysis of risks of dying by cause of death; and areal analysis of adult mortality and its correlate across 100 small geographical units.Item Estudio longitudinal de mortalidad de adultos costarricenses 1984-2007(Población y Salud en Mesoamérica; Volumen 7, Número 2, 2010) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Antich Montero, DanielSe describen los procedimientos y se presentan algunos resultados del "estudio longitudinal de mortalidad de adultos costarricenses" (ELMAC), consistente en una muestra de cerca de 20.000 costarricenses de 30 o más años de edad del censo de población de 1984 seguidos hasta fines de 2007. El Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC) digitalizó los nombres de la boleta censal de los individuos en la muestra. Procesos informáticos depuraron los nombres y los enlazaron al número único de identificación -el número de cédula- del Registro Civil. El empate se efectuó en el 87% de la muestra. Los individuos identificados se siguieron en las bases de datos del Registro Civil para establecer su sobrevivencia. Se identificaron más de 5.000 defunciones entre el censo de 1984 y diciembre de 2007. Procesos informáticos adicionales enlazaron 92% de estas defunciones con las de las estadísticas vitales del INEC que contienen el dato de la causa de defunción. El patrón de mortalidad de la muestra, que comprende 373.000 personas-años de observación, reproduce bien las tasas de las tablas de mortalidad del país. Las gradientes socioeconómicas de la mortalidad en esta muestra no son sensibles a posibles errores en los empates o en las imputaciones efectuadas. La muestra confirma la excepcionalmente baja mortalidad de los adultos costarricenses, especialmente de los varones. Esta muestra abre la puerta para que se efectúen variedad de análisis de los determinantes socioeconómicos de la mortalidad de adultos en Costa Rica, algo rara vez intentado en un país en desarrollo.Item Self-reported versus performance-based measures of physical function: prognostic value for survival(Demographic Research; Volumen 30, Número 7, 2014) Glei, Dana; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Weinstein, Maxine; Goldman, NoreenBackground: Although previous studies have indicated that performance assessments strongly predict future survival, few have evaluated the incremental value in the presence of controls for self-reprted activity and mobility limitations. Objective: We assess and compare the added value of four tests -- walking speed, chair stands, grip strength, and peak expiratory flow (PEF) -- for predicting all-cause mortality. Methods: Using population-based samples of older adults in Costa Rica (n = 2290, aged 60+) and Taiwan (n = 1219, aged 53+), we estimate proportional hazards models of mortality for an approximate five-year period. Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves are used to assess the prognostic value of each performance assessment. Results: Self-reprted measures of physical limitations contribute substantial gains in mortality prediction, whereas performance-based assessments yield modest incremental gains. PEF provides the greatest added value, followed by grip strength. Our results suggest that including more than two performance assessments may provide little improvement in mortality prediction. Conclusions: PEF and grip strength are often simpler to administer in home interview settings, impose less of a burden on some respondents, and, in the presence of self-reprted limitations, appear to be better predictors of mortality than do walking speed or chair stands. Comments: Being unable to perform the test is often a strong predictor of mortality, but these indicators are not well-defined. Exclusion rates vary by the specific task and are likely to depend on the underlying demographic, health, social and cultural characteristics of the sample.Item Exploring why Costa Rica outperforms the United States in life expectancy: a tale of two inequality gradients(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS); Volumen 113, Número 5, 2016) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Dow, William H.Mortality in the United States is 18% higher than in Costa Rica among adult men and 10% higher among middle-aged women, despite the several times higher income and health expenditures of the United States. This comparison simultaneously shows the potential for substantially lowering mortality in other middle-income countries and highlights the United States’ poor health performance. The United States’ underperformance is strongly linked to its much steeper socioeconomic (SES) gradients in health. Although the highest SES quartile in the United States has better mortality than the highest quartile in Costa Rica, US mortality in its lowest quartile is markedly worse than in Costa Rica’s lowest quartile, providing powerful evidence that the US health inequality patterns are not inevitable. High SES-mortality gradients in the United States are apparent in all broad cause-of-death groups, but Costa Rica’s overall mortality advantage can be explained largely by two causes of death: lung cancer and heart disease. Lung cancer mortality in the United States is four times higher among men and six times higher among women compared with Costa Rica. Mortality by heart disease is 54% and 12% higher in the United States than in Costa Rica for men and women, respectively. SES gradients for heart disease and diabetes mortality are also much steeper in the United States. These patterns may be partly explained by much steeper SES gradients in the United States compared with Costa Rica for behavioral and medical risk factors such as smoking, obesity, lack of health insurance, and uncontrolled dysglycemia and hypertension.Item High life expectancy and reversed socioeconomic gradients of elderly people in Mexico and Costa Rica(Demographic Research, vol.38, 2018) Rosero Bixby, LuisBackground: Some existing estimates suggest, controversially, that life expectancy at age 60 (LE60) of Latin American males is exceptionally high. Knowledge of adult mortality in Latin America is often based on unreliable statistics or indirect demographic methods. Objective: This study aims to gather direct estimates of mortality at older ages in two Latin American countries (Mexico and Costa Rica) using recent longitudinal surveys and to determine the socioeconomic status (SES) gradients for LE60. Methods: Data were collected from independent panels of approximately 7,000 older adults followed over more than a decade ‒ the MHAS and CRELES surveys. The age-specific death rates were modeled with Gompertz regression, and thousands of life tables were simulated to estimate LE60 and its confidence interval. Results: LE60 estimates obtained from MHAS and CRELES are similar to those obtained from traditional statistics, confirming the exceptionally high LE60 of men in the two countries. The expected gradients of higher LE60 with higher SES are not present, especially among males, who even show reverse gradients (some exaggerated by data issues). Conclusions: Vital statistics correctly estimate elderly mortality in Mexico and Costa Rica. The higher-than-expected LE60 among Latin American males in general, and particularly among low-SES individuals, seems to be real; their determinants should be thoroughly investigated. Contribution: This study shows with hard, reliable data, independent of traditional statistics, that elderly males in tropical Latin America enjoy an exceptionally high life expectancy and that SES gradients are absent or even reverse.Item La reducción de la mortalidad de adultos(Actualidad Demográfica de Costa Rica. Fondo de Población de las Naciones Unidas, 1995) Rosero Bixby, LuisLos estudios sobre la transición epidemiológica de Costa Rica se han concentrado en los niños en razón de que el principal factor en la reducción de la mortalidad ha sido la prevención de las muertes prematuras (Behm, 1976; Rosero-Bixby, 1986; CELADE, Ministerio de Salud y Universidad de Costa Rica, 1987; Cervantes y Raabe, 1991). La mayor disponibilidad información sobre la mortalidad en la niñez y el hecho de que la población sea predominantemente joven (en 1960, el 47% de la población tenía menos de 1 5 años) han contribuido también a que se otorgue atención prepnderante al estudio de la mortalidad temprana. Esta sección cambia el foco de atención de la mortalidad de los niños a los adultos. El objetivo es describir la evolución de la mortalidad en edades adultas en Costa Rica, identificar sus componentes clave y sacar conclusiones respecto de sus probables determinantes. La sección se divide en cuatro subsecciones: (1) información y métodos utilizados; (2) reducción del riesgo de muerte en dos grupos de edad adulta (20 a 49 y 50 a 79 años); (3) análisis del riesgo de muerte por distintas causas; y (4) análisis de la mortalidad de adultos por cantón.