Luis Rosero Bixby
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Item Las transferencias intergeneracionales en Costa Rica(Notas de Población, N° 90, 2010) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Zúñiga Brenes, PaolaEn este artículo se presentan las estimaciones del sistema de transferencias intergeneracionales de Costa Rica para 1991 y 2004. Los resultados más destacados de este ejercicio permitieron advertir que el tramo de edades superavitarias del ciclo de vida económico es relativamente breve en el país y que a partir de los 55 años el ingreso laboral de los costarricenses se torna insuficiente para sufragar su consumo. En este sentido, el papel del gobierno es crucial en el financiamiento del déficit de las personas mayores, mientras que el de los niños y jóvenes depende en gran medida de las transferencias de los padres. Se observó también que las personas de edad no representan por lo general una carga para sus familias, sino que, por el contrario, realizan más transferencias de las que reciben, incluso a edades muy avanzadas. De hecho, el ingreso de activos y el ahorro son sorprendentemente elevados y aumentan con la edad, hasta alrededor de los 70 años.Al combinar estas estimaciones con las proyecciones de población, se concluye que el envejecimiento poblacional de Costa Rica no representará la catástrofe que se ha anunciado, aunque sí supondrá un reto para las finanzas públicas en un futuro próximo, especialmente para las áreas del gobierno a cargo de las pensiones y la salud. Los bonos demográficos que se derivarían de los datos expuestos y el análisis realizado implican la posibilidad de aumentar el bienestar de los costarricenses. El desafío entonces es implementar las medidas necesarias para que ese potencial se materialice.Item Do biological measures mediate the relationship between education and health : a comparative study(Social Science & Medicine 72 (2011), 2010) Goldman, Noreen; Turra, Cassio M.; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Weir, David; Crimmins, EileenDespite a myriad of studies examining the relationship between socioeconomic status and health outcomes, few have assessed the extent to which biological markers of chronic disease account for social disparities in health. Studies that have examined this issue have generally been based on surveys in wealthy countries that include a small set of clinicalmarkers of cardiovascular disease. The availability of recent data from nationally representative surveys of older adults in Costa Rica and Taiwan that collected a rich set of biomarkers comparable to those in a recent US survey permits us to explore these associations across diverse populations. Similar regression models were estimated on three data setsethe Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study in Taiwan, the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging, and the Health and Retirement Study in the USA e in order to assess (1) the strength of the associations between educational attainment and a broad range of biomarkers; and (2) the extent to which these biomarkers account for the relationships between education and two measures of health status (self-rated health, functional limitations) in older populations. The estimates suggest non-systematic and weak associations between education and high risk biomarker values in Taiwan and Costa Rica, in contrast to generally negative and significant associations in the US, especially among women. The results also reveal negligible or modest contributions of the biomarkers to educational disparities in the health outcomes. The findings are generally consistent with previous research suggesting stronger associations between socioeconomic status and health in wealthy countries than in middle-income countries and may reflect higher levels of social stratification in the US. With access to an increasing number of longitudinal biosocial surveys, researchers may be better able to distinguish true variations in the relationship between socioeconomic status and health across different settings from methodological differences.Item Stressors over the life course and neuroendocrine system dysregulation in Costa Rica(Journal of Aging and Health XX(X), 2010) Gersten, Omer; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Dow, William H.Objectives: A key aspect of the increasingly popular allostatic load (AL) framework is that stressors experienced over the entire life course result in physiological dysregulation. Although core to AL theory, this idea has been little tested, and where it has been tested, the results have been mixed. Method: The study analyzes the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging (CRELES), a new, cross-sectional, and nationally representative survey of older Costa Rican men and women (aged between 60 and 109 years). The survey period is between 2004 and 2006, and the survey has a sample size of 2,827 individuals. This article focuses on the relationship between a variety of stressors experienced over the life course and cortisol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS), epinephrine, and norepinephrine analyzed separately and in an index. Results: There are some links between certain stressors and worse cortisol levels, but overall, almost all of the stressors examined are not associated with riskier neuroendocrine biomarker profiles. Discussion: More work is needed, in order to establishthe connection between stressors experienced over the life course and resting levels of the neuroendocrine markers.Item Estudio longitudinal de mortalidad de adultos costarricenses 1984-2007(Población y Salud en Mesoamérica; Volumen 7, Número 2, 2010) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Antich Montero, DanielSe describen los procedimientos y se presentan algunos resultados del "estudio longitudinal de mortalidad de adultos costarricenses" (ELMAC), consistente en una muestra de cerca de 20.000 costarricenses de 30 o más años de edad del censo de población de 1984 seguidos hasta fines de 2007. El Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC) digitalizó los nombres de la boleta censal de los individuos en la muestra. Procesos informáticos depuraron los nombres y los enlazaron al número único de identificación -el número de cédula- del Registro Civil. El empate se efectuó en el 87% de la muestra. Los individuos identificados se siguieron en las bases de datos del Registro Civil para establecer su sobrevivencia. Se identificaron más de 5.000 defunciones entre el censo de 1984 y diciembre de 2007. Procesos informáticos adicionales enlazaron 92% de estas defunciones con las de las estadísticas vitales del INEC que contienen el dato de la causa de defunción. El patrón de mortalidad de la muestra, que comprende 373.000 personas-años de observación, reproduce bien las tasas de las tablas de mortalidad del país. Las gradientes socioeconómicas de la mortalidad en esta muestra no son sensibles a posibles errores en los empates o en las imputaciones efectuadas. La muestra confirma la excepcionalmente baja mortalidad de los adultos costarricenses, especialmente de los varones. Esta muestra abre la puerta para que se efectúen variedad de análisis de los determinantes socioeconómicos de la mortalidad de adultos en Costa Rica, algo rara vez intentado en un país en desarrollo.Item Generational Transfers and Population Aging in Latin America(Population and Development review 37 (Supplement), 2011) Rosero Bixby, LuisPopulation aging, a direct consequence of the demographic transition, is often portrayed in negative, even dire terms. This chapter examines some of the probable effects of population aging in Latin America within the framework of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA ) project (NTA 2010).1 The starting point is the NTA estimates of the life-cycle deficit and intergenerational transfers in five countries: Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Uruguay. This information is then combined with long-term demographic trends, primarily in age composition, to estimate expected effects on the economy. These effects, also known as “demographic dividends” (e.g., Mason and Lee 2007), are both positive and negative, meaning that population aging in the region involves not only challenges and constraints but also opportunities for development and gains in standards of living. In economic terms, the human life cycle typically includes long initial and final periods of dependency in which production, if any, is insufficient to meet consumption, and an intermediate period in which individuals produce more than they consume. The surplus in intermediate ages compensates for the “life-cycle deficit” at early and late ages through public and private transfers across generations, as well as through reallocations within the same generation. This cycle of deficit–surplus–deficit is neatly depicted by the age curves of consumption and production (labor income) in a given society (Lee, Mason, and Miller 2003).Item Estimation indirecte du nombre d'immigrés en Espagne à partir des taux de fécondité et des naissances(Population-F, 66 (3-4), 2011) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Castro Martín, Teresa; Sánchez Domínguez, MaríaCertaines caractéristiques de la population peuvent être estimées de plusieurs manières, et la confrontation des différentes estimations permet de comparer les méthodes et de mieux comprendre les limites de chacune d’entre elles. Depuis 1996, l’Espagne dispose d’un registre de population regroupant tous les registres municipaux ; il inclut l’ensemble des immigrants, permettant ainsi l’évaluation directe de leur nombre dans sa population. Par ailleurs, une enquête de 2007 permet d’estimer la fécondité des immigrants en Espagne, par sexe et âge. Dans cet article, Luis Rosero-Bixby, Teresa Castro-Martín, David Reher et María Sánchez-Domínguez partent des taux de fécondité des immigrants issus de l’enquête et du nombre de naissances disponible dans l’état civil pour déduire le nombre d’immigrants en Espagne par pays d’origine. La comparaison des résultats avec les effectifs présents dans les registres leur permet de mettre la méthode à l’épreuve et de préciser les limites du registre, en particulier la surestimation probable du nombre d’hommes immigrants.Item Estimating the number of immigrants in Spain : an indirect method based on births and fertility rates(Population-E; Volumen 66, Número 3-4, 2011) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Castro Martín, Teresa; Reher, David Sven; Sánchez Domínguez, MaríaThis article proposes an indirect method to validate existing estimates of immigrants’ stock from the Spanish municipal population register, which some believe might be over-counting immigrants who double register in different municipalities or fail to deregister when leaving the country. The proposed method uses two pieces of information: births to immigrants and their fertility rates. Data on births by parents’ origin come from the Spanish birth registry; fertility rates are estimated with data from the 2007 National Immigrant Survey. For female immigrants, the indirect estimate does not differ signifi cantly from the count in the register, which can be taken as a validation of both sources. Among men, however, the population register counts 15% more immigrants than the indirect estimate, and this difference is statistically signifi cant. Western European men and women, and Romanian men are immigrant groups with substantial and statistically signifi cant excess count in the population register compared to this article’s estimate. The opposite pattern, i.e. ratio of register-toestimated number of immigrants lower than one, is found for Ecuadorian men and women and African men, suggesting that these groups might be under-counted in the population register, although the observed differentials are not statistically significant.Item Transfer accounts in Costa Rica’s mixed economy under rapidly changing demographic conditions(Population Aging and the Generational Economy A Global Perspective, 2011) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Zúñiga Brenes, Paola; Collado Chaves, AndreaIn Costa Rica government transfers to the elderly population are exceptionally high in per capita terms. In contrast, net transfers from adult children to elderly parents are negligible until the parents reach very advanced ages. Intragenerational reallocations are also a surprisingly large source of funding of consumption at old ages. The narrow age span with a labor income surplus, combined with the early age (55 years) at which Costa Ricans start having a labor income defi cit, is another peculiarity of this country.Item Maternidades y fronteras. La fecundidad de las mujeres inmigrantes en España(Revista Internacional de Sociología (RIS); Volumen 69, Número M1, 2011) Castro Martín, Teresa; Rosero Bixby, LuisEste artículo tiene como objetivo examinar los patrones reproductivos de la población inmigrante y evaluar en qué medida difieren de los de la población española, utilizando las biografías migratorias y reproductivas de la Encuesta Nacional de Inmigrantes 2007. Los resultados muestran que la fecundidad de las mujeres inmigrantes difiere poco en su nivel —aunque bastante en su calendario— de la de las españolas, excepto en el caso de las africanas (3,5 hijos por mujer en 2004-2006). Su contribución conjunta al Índice Sintético de Fecundidad de España es de 6,6%. El artículo también analiza las complejas interrelaciones entre migración y fecundidad, poniendo a prueba algunas de las hipótesis más comunes en la literatura. Las mujeres africanas tienen un pico de elevada fecundidad recién llegadas a España, sobre todo si migraron por razones familiares o ya estaban casadas antes de migrar. El resto de los colectivos muestra una fecundidad excepcionalmente baja en el año previo a la migración y, una vez en España, mantienen las tasas de fecundidad moderadamente bajas que ya tenían en la sociedad de origen. Las mujeres que migraron por razones laborales y las que ya tenían hijos en el país de origen tienen una fecundidad significativamente menor en sus primeros años en España que el resto de mujeres inmigrantes. his paper aims to examine reproductive patterns of immigrants in Spain and to assess to what extent these patterns differ from those of the native Spanish population, using the migration and reproductive biographies collected in the 2007 National Survey of Immigrants. Our results show that, although fertility timing diverges considerably among groups, immigrants’ level of fertility differs little from that of Spaniards, except in the case of North African women (3.5 children per woman in 2004-2006). Immigrants’ contribution to Spain’s total fertility rate is quite modest: 6.6%. The paper also examines the complex interactions between migration and fertility, testing some of the common hypotheses in the literature. African women have a peak of high fertility shortly after arrival in Spain, particularly if they migrate for family reasons or if they were married before migration. The rest of the immigrant groups have a very low fertility rate in the year prior to migration and, once in Spain, they maintain moderately low fertility rates. Women who migrated for work purposes and women who already had children in the country of origin have significantly lower fertility during their first years in Spain that the rest of immigrant women.Item Predicting mortality with biomarkers : a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans(Population Health Metrics 10(1), 2012) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Dow, William H.Background: Little is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality. Methods: This is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths. Main outcome: prospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models. Results: Biomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reprted health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS). Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP) and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects. Conclusions: This study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow), are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in other settings: despite the continued medical focus on drugs for BP and cholesterol, high levels of BP and cholesterol have little predictive value of mortality in this elderly population.