Luis Rosero Bixby
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Item Modelling diffusion effects in fertility transition(Population Studies, No. 47, 1993) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Casterline, John B.Mathematical models bind theory to precise formulations, and by doing so accentuate logical inconsistences in theories and facilitate their testing. In this article we explore the implications of simple mathematical models of fertility transition that contain social interaction diffusion effects. We put forward the hypothesis that diffusion effects act as a third type of causal agent of fertility transition, above and beyond the traditionally studied demand and supply factors. Substantial historical and contemporary evidence points to the existence of diffusion effects on the timing and pace of fertility transition.' Among the pieces of evidence most commonly cited are the fact that fertility declines have occurred under a wide variety of social and economic circumstances, with the pace of decline frequently outpacing the rate of socio-economic change; the irreversibility and rapid pace of decline; the remarkable spatial and temporal patterning of fertility decline in terms of linguistic, ethnic, and cultural boundaries; and, in contemporary developing societies, the relatively small cross-societal and temporal variation in stated reproductive preferences, as compared to the variation in levels of fertility and contraceptive behaviour in the same populations.Item Interaction diffusion and fertility transition in Costa Rica(Social Forces; Vol. 73, No. 2, 1994) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Casterline, John B.A long-standing concern of sociologists is the contribution of diffusion processes to social change. This article considers the contribution of social interaction diffusion to the fertility transition in Costa Rica, focusing on person-to-person contagion. Several prominent features of the Costa Rican transition suggest the existence of interaction diffusion effects, notably its pervasiveness toward all socioeconomic strata and the lack of evidence of a downward shift in family size preferences. Maps of the timing of fertility transition show an ordered spatial pattern suggestive of contagion between neighboring areas. A dynamic regression model estimated from pooled time series data for 100 counties reveals inter- and within-county diffusion effects on birth control adoption net of socioeconomic and family-planning program effects.Item Nuptiality trends and fertility transition in Latin America(The Fertility Transition in Latin America. Oxford University Press, 1996) Rosero Bixby, Luishe purpose of this chapter is to determine the role played by nuptiality changes in the fertility transition in Latin America. As other contributions to this book show, most Latin American countries have reduced substantially their fertility since 1960 approximately. In this chapter we examine the extent to which changes in marriage patterns explain this generalized fertility decline. Fertility transition in Europe occurred without the help o f nuptiality changes, or even in spite of a marriage boom (Hajnal 1956; Watkins 1981; Dyson and Murphy 1985). Late age at marriage and widespread spinsterhood had brought about moderate levels of fertility long before the European transition, in what Coale has called a ‘first’ transition (Coale 1973). In developing countries, in contrast, prevalent patterns of almost universal and precocious marriage have suggested that important fertility decline can occur because of nuptiality changes. Several studies have, indeed, showed meaningful effects of marriage changes, particularly in East Asia. For example, Mauldin and Berelson (1978) found that delayed marriages account for 35-40 per cent of birth rate reductions in ten developing countries with major fertility declines. Cho and Retherford (1974) also estimated an important contribution of nuptiality to birth rate declines in seven Asian populations between 1960 and 1970, which range from 23 per cent in Taiwan to 102 per cent in the Philippines. The literature on nuptiality and its effect on fertility in developing countries has been dominated by observations from Asia and tropical Africa, however. Nuptiality and family patterns in Latin America are intermediate between those in Western Europe and those in Asia or Africa (Merrick 1986; De Vos 1987). The female mean age at marriage is 22 years and the proportion of never married women by age 50 is 13 per cent in Latin America as a whole, figures that contrast with, for example, 19 years and 2 per cent respectively in South Asia (United Nations 1988: table 5). Regional trends in Latin American nuptiality and their impact on fertility have not been well documented.Item Child mortality and the fertility transition: aggregated and multilevel evidence from Costa Rica(From death to birth: mortality decline and reproductive change. National Academy Press, 1998) Rosero Bixby, LuisThe author explores whether reduced child mortality is needed in order to realize fertility transition by examining empirical evidence from Costa Rica, a developing country which decreased both child mortality and birth rates. Costa Rica's record is examined at the aggregate and individual levels. A strong association between child mortality and fertility is well documented in the literature. The role of child mortality on contemporary fertility transitions is considered, with geographic information system data used to obtain a clear definition of the area within a radius of 5 km in rural areas and 1 km in urban areas from the index household. Focus is given to the adoption of family planning for the first time as the dependent variable. Costa Rican national trends during the century are analyzed, followed by an examination of the role of child mortality upon the fertility transition at the micro- and macro-level. The analysis at each level first explores bivariate associations, then the multivariate associations with the purpose of isolating net effects. The macro-level analysis is based upon data from 89 Costa Rican counties.Item Interaction, Diffusion, and Fertility Transition in Costa Rica: Quantitative and Qualitative Evidence(Dynamics of Values in Fertility Change. Oxford University Press, 1999) Rosero Bixby, LuisThis chapter examines the role played by diffusion through social interaction in the Costa Rican fertility transition. The literature about the causes of fertility transition has traditionally focused on the socio-economic and cultural determinants of the motivation for having large or small families. To a somewhat lesser degree, it has also considered supply factors limiting or facilitating access to contraception, that is, the role of family planning programmes. The concern here is with the third type of causal agent of fertility transition, that is, the autonomous spread, or contagiousness, of fertility control. If Costa Rican data support the proposition that social contagion processes shaped fertility decline, then an empirical foundation exists for Simmons's claim that 'programmes may generate their own demand through diffusion from early users to others'.Item Population Programs and Fertility(Population and Development Review; Volumen 27, Número: Global Fertility Transition, 2001) Rosero Bixby, LuisUnderstanding the rationale and sources of support for population programs is crucial for assessing their impact and chances of survival. One of the most notable features of population agencies and programs is that not long ago—in the 1950s—they were unthinkable. "To govern is to populate" was the unquestioned principle of good government attributed to Juan Bautista Alberdi, the nineteenth-century statesman and philosopher from Argentina. How did governments come to abandon this principle and establish birth control programs (later called euphemistically "family planning" and "reproductive health" programs)? The answer "rapid population growth" or "high demographic density" may seem obvious to demographers but it is not so obvious for politicians, especially considering the opposition to birth control by religious authorities and other powerful interest groups and the nationalist pride associated with large populations.Item Estimation indirecte du nombre d'immigrés en Espagne à partir des taux de fécondité et des naissances(Population-F, 66 (3-4), 2011) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Castro Martín, Teresa; Sánchez Domínguez, MaríaCertaines caractéristiques de la population peuvent être estimées de plusieurs manières, et la confrontation des différentes estimations permet de comparer les méthodes et de mieux comprendre les limites de chacune d’entre elles. Depuis 1996, l’Espagne dispose d’un registre de population regroupant tous les registres municipaux ; il inclut l’ensemble des immigrants, permettant ainsi l’évaluation directe de leur nombre dans sa population. Par ailleurs, une enquête de 2007 permet d’estimer la fécondité des immigrants en Espagne, par sexe et âge. Dans cet article, Luis Rosero-Bixby, Teresa Castro-Martín, David Reher et María Sánchez-Domínguez partent des taux de fécondité des immigrants issus de l’enquête et du nombre de naissances disponible dans l’état civil pour déduire le nombre d’immigrants en Espagne par pays d’origine. La comparaison des résultats avec les effectifs présents dans les registres leur permet de mettre la méthode à l’épreuve et de préciser les limites du registre, en particulier la surestimation probable du nombre d’hommes immigrants.Item Estimating the number of immigrants in Spain : an indirect method based on births and fertility rates(Population-E; Volumen 66, Número 3-4, 2011) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Castro Martín, Teresa; Reher, David Sven; Sánchez Domínguez, MaríaThis article proposes an indirect method to validate existing estimates of immigrants’ stock from the Spanish municipal population register, which some believe might be over-counting immigrants who double register in different municipalities or fail to deregister when leaving the country. The proposed method uses two pieces of information: births to immigrants and their fertility rates. Data on births by parents’ origin come from the Spanish birth registry; fertility rates are estimated with data from the 2007 National Immigrant Survey. For female immigrants, the indirect estimate does not differ signifi cantly from the count in the register, which can be taken as a validation of both sources. Among men, however, the population register counts 15% more immigrants than the indirect estimate, and this difference is statistically signifi cant. Western European men and women, and Romanian men are immigrant groups with substantial and statistically signifi cant excess count in the population register compared to this article’s estimate. The opposite pattern, i.e. ratio of register-toestimated number of immigrants lower than one, is found for Ecuadorian men and women and African men, suggesting that these groups might be under-counted in the population register, although the observed differentials are not statistically significant.Item The declining effect of sibling size on children's education in Costa Rica(Demographic Research; Volumen 31, Número 48, 2014) Li, Jing; Dow, William H.; Rosero Bixby, LuisBackground: Costa Rica experienced a dramatic fertility decline in the 1960s and 1970s. The same period saw substantial improvement in children’s educational attainment in Costa Rica. This correlation is consistent with household-level quantity-quality tradeoffs, but prior research on quantity-quality tradeoff magnitudes is mixed, and little research has estimated quantity-quality tradeoff behaviors in Latin America. Objective: This study explores one dimension of the potential demographic dividend from the fertility decline: the extent to which it was accompanied by quantity-quality tradeoffs leading to higher educational attainment. Specifically, we provide the first estimate of quantity-quality tradeoffs in Costa Rica, analyzing the increase in secondary school attendance among Costa Rican children as the number of siblings decreases. Furthermore, we advance the literature by exploring how that tradeoff has changed over time. Methods: We use 1984 and 2000 Costa Rican census data as well as survey data from the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study (CRELES). To address endogenous family size, the analysis uses an instrumental variable strategy based on the gender of the first two children to identify the causal relationship between number of siblings and children’s education. Results: We find that, among our earlier cohorts, having fewer siblings is associated with a significantly higher probability of having attended at least one year of secondary school, particularly among girls. The effect is stronger after we account for the endogeneity of number of children born by the mother. For birth cohorts after 1980 this relationship largely disappears. Conclusions: This study provides strong evidence for a declining quantity-quality (Q-Q) tradeoff in Costa Rica. This result suggests one potential explanation for the heterogeneous findings in prior studies elsewhere, but more work will be required to understand why such tradeoffs might vary across time and context.Item Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption(Population aging, dependency, and consumption, 2014) Lee, Ronald; Mason, Andrew; Amporfu, Eugenia; An, Chong-Bum; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Bravo, Jorge; Bucheli, Marisa; Chen, Qiulin; Comelatto, Pablo; Coy, Deidra; Donehower, Gretchen; Dramani, Latif; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Gal, Robert I.; Holz, Mauricio; [y 39 más]Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.