Fecundidad y Planificación familiar
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Item The COVID-19 pandemic and fertility decline in Costa Rica: A deep plunge in the first pandemic month, a decelerated decline, and a baby bust due to fleeing migrants(International Journal of Population Studies, 2024) Rosero Bixby, LuisUsing microdata from the administrative birth registry maintained by the electoral authority of Costa Rica, this paper aims to address the knowledge gap concerning childbearing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of rapid fertility decline since before the pandemic, as compared to the scenario in the highly developed countries. Monthly fertility rates for the period between 2018 and 2022 were estimated. The outcome of interest was a year-on-year change in these rates. The major findings of this study are as follows: (i) A short-lived baby bust in the first full month of the pandemic that is similar to falls observed in other countries (the year-on-year decrease of fertility in January 2021 was as high as 24% for some groups); (ii) a pandemic-associated deceleration in the fertility decline, which could be interpreted as a baby boom if the counterfactual were a continuation of the recent pre-pandemic declining trend; (iii) hints of a baby boom later in the pandemic in communities with low socioeconomic status, and especially, in families with several children, which could come from unwanted pregnancies; and (iv) an anomalous drop in births from foreign-born mothers delivered during the first 9 months of the pandemic, which probably stemmed from pandemic-motivated migration out of the country. The fertility plunge in January 2021 seems to be a response to the hardships caused by pandemic mitigation measures in April 2020, as well as by the uncertainties and fears concerning COVID-19, rather than the response to the physiological harm of the disease itself. The native-born Costa Ricans saw some of the lowest total birth rates in the world during the pandemic: 1.14 and 1.13 births per woman in 2021 and 2022, respectively. These rates would have been even lower if the sharp birth decline observed before the pandemic had continued during the two pandemic years under studyItem La tasa de fecundidad de 1,3 hijos por mujer de 2021 y 2022 de cara al futuro: ¿Ultrabaja fecundidad o posposición de la maternidad? Implicaciones demográficas(CONARE, PEN, 2023) Rosero Bixby, LuisCosta Rica llegó en 2021 y 2022 a una tasa global de fecundidad (TGF) de 1,3 hijos, nivel conocido como de “ultrabaja fecundidad”. Este ultrabajo valor podría ser un espejismo causado por posposición de nacimientos entre las personas jóvenes. La TGF de cohorte –que está libre de perturbaciones por posposición– fue 2,4 hijos por mujer para la cohorte que completó la fecundidad en 2022 (nacidas en 1972). Se simulan dos escenarios futuros de esta tasa: (1) que las niñas nacidas en el 2000 lleguen al fin de su periodo reproductivo (en el 2050) con una familia de 1,3 hijos en promedio –ultrabaja fecundidad– o (2) con dos hijos –escenario de posposición. La población total del país llegaría a un máximo 5,3 o 5,6 millones con estos escenarios, y el declive subsiguiente la llevaría a 4,5 o 5,4 millones en 2075. Una robusta inmigración podría elevar en 700 mil habitantes la población de 2075. La población en edad escolar caerá fuertemente en los dos escenarios, desde el máximo de un millón en 2002 a tan solo 320 mil educandos con familias de 1,3 hijos o 600 mil con familias de dos hijos. La población en edad retiro (que es independiente de la fecundidad en los próximos 65 años) aumentará vigorosamente de 510 mil actuales a 1,9 millones en 2075, en contraste con la población en edades activas que disminuirá desde un máximo de 3,6 millones en 2038 a 2,2 o 2,6 millones en 2075, haciendo que el cociente de sustento demográfico de las pensiones caiga en ambos escenarios, de siete actual a cerca de un trabajador por pensionado en 2075, sin que la migración pueda tener un impacto relevante. No parece existir respuesta demográfica realista que evite el colapso del sistema de pensiones de reparto.Item Maternidades y fronteras. La fecundidad de las mujeres inmigrantes en España(Revista Internacional de Sociología (RIS); Volumen 69, Número M1, 2011) Castro Martín, Teresa; Rosero Bixby, LuisEste artículo tiene como objetivo examinar los patrones reproductivos de la población inmigrante y evaluar en qué medida difieren de los de la población española, utilizando las biografías migratorias y reproductivas de la Encuesta Nacional de Inmigrantes 2007. Los resultados muestran que la fecundidad de las mujeres inmigrantes difiere poco en su nivel —aunque bastante en su calendario— de la de las españolas, excepto en el caso de las africanas (3,5 hijos por mujer en 2004-2006). Su contribución conjunta al Índice Sintético de Fecundidad de España es de 6,6%. El artículo también analiza las complejas interrelaciones entre migración y fecundidad, poniendo a prueba algunas de las hipótesis más comunes en la literatura. Las mujeres africanas tienen un pico de elevada fecundidad recién llegadas a España, sobre todo si migraron por razones familiares o ya estaban casadas antes de migrar. El resto de los colectivos muestra una fecundidad excepcionalmente baja en el año previo a la migración y, una vez en España, mantienen las tasas de fecundidad moderadamente bajas que ya tenían en la sociedad de origen. Las mujeres que migraron por razones laborales y las que ya tenían hijos en el país de origen tienen una fecundidad significativamente menor en sus primeros años en España que el resto de mujeres inmigrantes. his paper aims to examine reproductive patterns of immigrants in Spain and to assess to what extent these patterns differ from those of the native Spanish population, using the migration and reproductive biographies collected in the 2007 National Survey of Immigrants. Our results show that, although fertility timing diverges considerably among groups, immigrants’ level of fertility differs little from that of Spaniards, except in the case of North African women (3.5 children per woman in 2004-2006). Immigrants’ contribution to Spain’s total fertility rate is quite modest: 6.6%. The paper also examines the complex interactions between migration and fertility, testing some of the common hypotheses in the literature. African women have a peak of high fertility shortly after arrival in Spain, particularly if they migrate for family reasons or if they were married before migration. The rest of the immigrant groups have a very low fertility rate in the year prior to migration and, once in Spain, they maintain moderately low fertility rates. Women who migrated for work purposes and women who already had children in the country of origin have significantly lower fertility during their first years in Spain that the rest of immigrant women.Item The declining effect of sibling size on children's education in Costa Rica(Demographic Research; Volumen 31, Número 48, 2014) Li, Jing; Dow, William H.; Rosero Bixby, LuisBackground: Costa Rica experienced a dramatic fertility decline in the 1960s and 1970s. The same period saw substantial improvement in children’s educational attainment in Costa Rica. This correlation is consistent with household-level quantity-quality tradeoffs, but prior research on quantity-quality tradeoff magnitudes is mixed, and little research has estimated quantity-quality tradeoff behaviors in Latin America. Objective: This study explores one dimension of the potential demographic dividend from the fertility decline: the extent to which it was accompanied by quantity-quality tradeoffs leading to higher educational attainment. Specifically, we provide the first estimate of quantity-quality tradeoffs in Costa Rica, analyzing the increase in secondary school attendance among Costa Rican children as the number of siblings decreases. Furthermore, we advance the literature by exploring how that tradeoff has changed over time. Methods: We use 1984 and 2000 Costa Rican census data as well as survey data from the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study (CRELES). To address endogenous family size, the analysis uses an instrumental variable strategy based on the gender of the first two children to identify the causal relationship between number of siblings and children’s education. Results: We find that, among our earlier cohorts, having fewer siblings is associated with a significantly higher probability of having attended at least one year of secondary school, particularly among girls. The effect is stronger after we account for the endogeneity of number of children born by the mother. For birth cohorts after 1980 this relationship largely disappears. Conclusions: This study provides strong evidence for a declining quantity-quality (Q-Q) tradeoff in Costa Rica. This result suggests one potential explanation for the heterogeneous findings in prior studies elsewhere, but more work will be required to understand why such tradeoffs might vary across time and context.Item Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption(Population aging, dependency, and consumption, 2014) Lee, Ronald; Mason, Andrew; Amporfu, Eugenia; An, Chong-Bum; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Bravo, Jorge; Bucheli, Marisa; Chen, Qiulin; Comelatto, Pablo; Coy, Deidra; Donehower, Gretchen; Dramani, Latif; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Gal, Robert I.; Holz, Mauricio; [y 39 más]Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.Item Education gains attributable to fertility decline: patterns by gender, period, and country in Latin America and Asia(Demography,vol.54(4), 2017) Li, Jing; Dow, William H.; Rosero Bixby, LuisWe investigate the heterogeneity across countries and time in the relationship between mother’s fertility and children’s educational attainment—the quantity-quality (Q-Q) trade-off—by using census data from 17 countries in Asia and Latin America, with data from each country spanning multiple census years. For each country-year, we estimate micro-level instrumental variables models predicting secondary school attainment using number of siblings of the child, instrumented by the sex composition of the first two births in the family. We then analyze correlates of Q-Q trade-off patterns across countries. On average, one additional sibling in the family reduces the probability of secondary education by 6 percentage points for girls and 4 percentage points for boys. This Q-Q trade-off is significantly associated with the level of son preference, slightly decreasing over time and with fertility, but it does not significantly differ by educational level of the country.