Mortalidad y Morbilidad
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Item Traditional rural dietary pattern and all-cause mortality in a prospective cohort study of elderly Costa Ricans: the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study (CRELES)(The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 2024) Zhang, Yundan; Cortés Ortiz, Mónica V.; Leung, Cindy W.; Baylin, Ana; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Ruiz Narváez, Edward A.Costa Rica, as many other Latin American countries, is experiencing a fast demographic aging. It is estimated that by 2030, 18.5% of the population, or almost 1 of every 5 Costa Ricans, will be 60 y or older, compared with 7.9% or 1 of every 13 Costa Ricans in 1999 [1]. As the population ages, chronic health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and neurodegenerative disorders are expected to increase in prevalence posing growing challenges to the health of the Costa Rican population. With the demographic shift toward an aging population, there is an urgent need to study determinants of longevity and healthy aging. Diet—as part of a healthy lifestyle—is a key modifiable factor that may help to minimize the burden of age-related health conditions. Beans are a major source of protein and fiber in Costa Rican adults and part of traditional diets in most Latin American countries. High bean consumption has been found associated with a protective cardiometabolic prolife such as low total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol [2,3]. In the Costa Rican population specifically, intake of beans has been associated with lower risk of nonfatal myocardial infarction in middle-aged adults [4]. We recently reported that a traditional Costa Rican rural dietary pattern, rich in beans and rice, was associated with longer leukocyte telomeres—a marker of biologic aging—in Costa Rican adults 60 y and older [5]. However, no studies have examined whether adherence to a traditional diet in elderly Costa Ricans may also be associated with lower mortality. Because of the nutrition transition (i.e., a shift from traditional diets to an increased consumption of processed foods highs in sugars, fats, and salt) experienced by Costa Rica in the last decades [4,6,7], it is essential to evaluate the potential impact of traditional diets on promoting healthy aging and longevity within an aging population. In this study, we assessed the association between a traditional rural dietary pattern, as well as their major food components beans and rice, and all-cause mortality among elderly Costa Ricans aged 60 y and older at baseline. We hypothesized that higher scores on the traditional dietary pattern are associated with lower all-cause mortality in elderly Costa Ricans. We also assessed whether additional dietary patterns may be associated with all-cause mortality. We used longitudinal and nationally representative data from the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study (CRELES).Item The vanishing advantage of longevity in Nicoya, Costa Rica: A cohort shif(Demographic Research, vol.49 (27, 2023) Rosero Bixby, LuisBACKGROUND The Nicoya region in Costa Rica has been identified as one of a handful of hotspots of extreme longevity. The evidence supporting this status comes mostly from observing the 1990 and 2000 decades and cohorts born before 1930. OBJECTIVE To determine how the longevity advantage of older men in Nicoya has progressed in the period 1990 to 2020 and in cohorts born from 1900 to 1950. METHODS Remaining length of life and adult mortality were estimated using new public administrative records from the electoral system and a Gompertz regression model. A new nationwide survival-time database of 550,000 adult Costa Ricans who were alive at any point during 1990–2020 was put together. RESULTS The longevity advantage of Nicoya is disappearing in a trend driven mostly by cohort effects. While Nicoyan males born in 1905 had 33% lower adult mortality rates than other Costa Ricans, those born in 1945 had 10% higher rates. The original geographic hotspot of low elderly mortality, coined the Nicoya blue zone, has decreased to a small area south of the peninsula around the corridor from Hojancha inland to the beach town of Sámara. However, Nicoyans born before 1930 who are still alive continue to show exceptionally high longevity. CONCLUSIONS Surviving Nicoyan males born before 1930 are exceptional human beings living longer than expected lives. Not so for more recent cohorts. The window of opportunity to meet and study pre-1930 individuals is closing.Item Epigenome-Wide Association Study and Epigenetic Age Acceleration Associated with Cigarette Smoking among Costa Rican Adults(Scientific Reports, Vol. 12 Núm, 2022) Cárdenas, Andrés; Ecker, Simone; Fadadu, Raj P.; Huen, Karen; Orozco, Allan; McEwen, Lisa M.; Engelbrecht, Hannah Ruth; Gladish, Nicole; Kobor, Michael S.; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Dow, William H.; Rehkopf, David H.Smoking-associated DNA methylation (DNAm) signatures are reproducible among studies of mostly European descent, with mixed evidence if smoking accelerates epigenetic aging and its relationship to longevity. We evaluated smoking-associated DNAm signatures in the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging (CRELES), including participants from the high longevity region of Nicoya. We measured genome-wide DNAm in leukocytes, tested Epigenetic Age Acceleration (EAA) from five clocks and estimates of telomere length (DNAmTL), and examined effect modification by the high longevity region. 489 participants had a mean (SD) age of 79.4 (10.8) years, and 18% were from Nicoya. Overall, 7.6% reported currently smoking, 35% were former smokers, and 57.4% never smoked. 46 CpGs and five regions (e.g. AHRR, SCARNA6/SNORD39, SNORA20, and F2RL3) were differentially methylated for current smokers. Former smokers had increased Horvath’s EAA (1.69-years; 95% CI 0.72, 2.67), Hannum’s EAA (0.77-years; 95% CI 0.01, 1.52), GrimAge (2.34-years; 95% CI1.66, 3.02), extrinsic EAA (1.27-years; 95% CI 0.34, 2.21), intrinsic EAA (1.03-years; 95% CI 0.12, 1.94) and shorter DNAmTL (− 0.04-kb; 95% CI − 0.08, − 0.01) relative to non-smokers. There was no evidence of effect modification among residents of Nicoya. Our findings recapitulate previously reported and novel smoking-associated DNAm changes in a Latino cohort.Item Derivation, internal validation, and recalibration of a cardiovascular risk score for Latin America and the Caribbean (Globorisk-LAC): A pooled analysis of cohort studies(The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 9, 2022) Stern, Dalia; Hambleton, Ian R.; Lotufo, Paulo Andrade; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Hennis, Anselm; Ferreccio, Catterina; Irazola, Vilma; Perel, Pablo; Gregg, Edward W.; Aguilar Salinas, Carlos Alberto; Álvarez Vaz, Ramón; Amadio, Marselle Bevilacqua; Baccino, Cecilia; Bambs S., Claudia; Bastos, João Luiz Dornelles; Beckles, Gloria; Bernabé Ortiz, Antonio; Bernardo, Carla; Bloch, Katia Vergetti; Blümel, Juan Enrique; Boggia, José G.; Borges, Pollyana Kássia de Oliveira; Bravo, Miguel; Brenes Camacho, Gilbert; Carbajal, Horacio A.; Casas Vásquez, Paola; Castillo Rascón, María Susana; Ceballos, Blanca H.; Colpani, Verônica; Cooper, Jackie A.; Cortés, Sandra; Cortés Valencia, Adrián; de Sá Cunha, Roberto; d'Orsi, Eleonora; Dow, William H.; Espeche, Walter G.; Fuchs, Flavio Danni; Pereira Costa Fuchs, Sandra Cristina; Godoy Agostinho Gimeno, Suely; Gómez Velasco, Donaji Verónica; González Chica, David Alejandro; González Villalpando, Clicerio; González Villalpando, María Elena; Grazioli, Gonzalo; Guerra, Ricardo Oliveira; Gutierrez, Laura E.; Herkenhoff Vieira, Fernando Luiz; Horimoto, Andrea Roseli Vancan Russo; Huidobro Muñoz, Laura Andrea; Koch, Elard S.; Lajous Loaeza, Martin; Furtado de Lima e Costa, Maria Fernanda; López Ridaura, Ruy; Campos Cavalcanti Maciel, Álvaro; Maestre, Gladys Elena; Manrique Espinoza, Betty Soledad; Marques, Larissa Pruner; Melgarejo Arias, Jesus David; Mena Camaré, Luis Javier; Mill, Jose Gerardo; Moreira, Leila Beltrami; Muñoz Velandia, Oscar Mauricio; Ono, Lariane Mortean; Oppermann, Karen; Ortiz Saavedra, Pedro José; de Paiva, Karina Mary; Viana Peixoto, Sérgio William; da Costa Pereira, Alexandre; Peres, Karen G.; de Anselmo Peres, Marco Aurelio; Ramírez Palacios, Paula; Rech, Cassiano Ricardo; Rivera Paredez, Berenice; Rodríguez Guerrero, Nohora Inés; Rojas Martínez, Maria Rosalba; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Rubinstein, Adolfo; Ruiz Morales, Álvaro de Jesus; Salazar, Martin R.; Salinas Rodríguez, Aarón; Nájera Salmerón, Jorge Alberto; Sánchez, Ramón Augusto; de Souza e Silva, Nelson Albuquerque; Nogueira da Silva, Thiago Luiz; Smeeth, Liam; Spritzer, Poli Mara; Tartaglione, Fiorella; Tartaglione, Jorge; Tello Rodríguez, Tania; Velázquez Cruz, Rafael; Cohorts Consortium of Latin America and the Caribbean (CC-LAC); Carrillo Larco, Rodrigo Martín; Miranda Montero, Juan J.; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, GoodarzBackground: Risk stratification is a cornerstone of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention and a main strategy proposed to achieve global goals of reducing premature CVD deaths. There are no cardiovascular risk scores based on data from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and it is unknown how well risk scores based on European and North American cohorts represent true risk among LAC populations. Methods: We developed a CVD (including coronary heart disease and stroke) risk score for fatal/non-fatal events using pooled data from 9 prospective cohorts with 21,378 participants and 1,202 events. We developed laboratory based (systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and smoking), and office-based (body mass index replaced total cholesterol and diabetes) models. We used Cox proportional hazards and held back a subset of participants to internally validate our models by estimating Harrell’s C-statistic and calibration slopes. Findings: The C-statistic for the laboratory-based model was 72% (70−74%), the calibration slope was 0.994 (0.934−1.055) among men and 0.852 (0.761−0.942) among women; for the office-based model the C-statistic was 71% (69−72%) and the calibration slope was 1.028 (0.980−1.076) among men and 0.811 (0.663−0.958) among women. In the pooled sample, using a 20% risk threshold, the laboratory-based model had sensitivity of 21.9% and specificity of 94.2%. Lowering the threshold to 10% increased sensitivity to 52.3% and reduced specificity to 78.7%. Interpretation: The cardiovascular risk score herein developed had adequate discrimination and calibration. The Globorisk-LAC would be more appropriate for LAC than the current global or regional risk scores. This work provides a tool to strengthen risk-based cardiovascular prevention in LAC.Item The Effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca Vaccines to Prevent Severe COVID-19 in Costa Rica: Nationwide, Ecological Study of Hospitalization Prevalence(JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, vol.8(5), 2022) Rosero Bixby, LuisBackground: The Costa Rican COVID-19 vaccination program has used Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. Real-world estimates of the effectiveness of these vaccines to prevent hospitalizations range from 90%-98% for two doses and from 70%-91% for a single dose. Almost all of these estimates predate the Delta variant. Objective: The aim of this study is to estimate the dose-dependent effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines to prevent severe illness in real-world conditions in Costa Rica, after the Delta variant became dominant. Methods: This observational study is a secondary analysis of hospitalization prevalence. The sample is all 3.67 million adult residents living in Costa Rica by mid-2021. The study is based on public aggregated data of 5978 COVID-19–related hospital records from September 14, 2021, to October 20, 2021, and 6.1 million vaccination doses administered to determine hospitalization prevalence by dose-specific vaccination status. The intervention retrospectively evaluated is vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech (78%) and Oxford-AstraZeneca (22%). The main outcome studied is being hospitalized. Results: Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization (VEH) was estimated as 93.4% (95% CI 93.0-93.9) for complete vaccination and 76.7% (95% CI 75.0-78.3) for single-dose vaccination among adults of all ages. VEH was lower and more uncertain among older adults aged ≥58 years: 92% (95% CI 91%-93%) for those who had received full vaccination and 64% (95% CI 58%-69%) for those who had received partial vaccination. Single-dose VEH declined over time during the study period, especially in the older age group. Estimates were sensitive to possible errors in the population count used to determine the residual number of unvaccinated people when vaccine coverage is high. Conclusions: The Costa Rican COVID-19 vaccination program that administered Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines seems to be highly effective at preventing COVID-19–related hospitalization after the Delta variant became dominant. Even a single dose seems to provide some degree of protection, which is good news for people whose second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was postponed several weeks to more rapidly increase the number of people vaccinated with a first dose. Timely monitoring of vaccine effectiveness is important to detect eventual failures and motivate the public to get vaccinated by providing information regarding the effectiveness of the vaccines.Item The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers(Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 20 (online first), 2022) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Miller, TimothyThe reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the e ects of infection control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in 53 countries.Item Helicobacter pylori infection and serum pepsinogen concentrations in an elderly population representative of Costa Rica(Población y Salud en Mesoamérica 19(2), 2022) Une, Clas Allan; Malespín Bendaña, Wendy Karina; Ramírez Mayorga, Vanessa; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Sierra Ramos, RafaelaINTRODUCTION: Costa Rica has among the highest mortality rates from gastric cancer in the world, largely due to late detection. It is therefore important that economically and logistically sustainable screening is implemented in order to detect risk of developing cancer. We have previously shown that low pepsinogen (PG) values and infection with Helicobacter pylori-CagA+ are associated with risk of gastric atrophy and cancer in Costa Rican populations. OBJECTIVES: To determine how markers for gastric cancer risk are distributed in an elderly population representative of Costa Rica in order to design a screening strategy. METHODS: The population studied consists of 2,652 participants in a nationally representative survey of ageing. Information concerning epidemiologic, demographic, nutritional and life style factors is available. Serum PG concentrations as well as H. pylori and CagA status were determined by serology. Possible associations were determined by regression analyses. RESULTS: Antibodies to H. pylori were present in 72% of the population and of those, 58% were CagA positive. Infection with H. pylori was associated with higher PGI concentrations (p=0.000) and infection with H. pylori-CagA+ with lower PGI concentrations (p=0.025). Both showed association with lower PGI/PGII (p=0.006 and p=0.000). Higher age was associated with lower prevalence of H. pylori infection (OR=0.98; p=0.000) and CagA+ (OR=0.98; p=0.000) but not with PG values. Regions with high risk of gastric cancer showed lower PGI (p=0.004) and PGI/PGII values (p=0.021) as well as higher prevalence of H. pylori infection (OR=1.39; p=0.013) but not CagA+. Using cut-off values of PGI<100 μg/L and PGI/PGII<2.0, 2.5 and 3.0, 7-15% of the population would be considered at risk. CONCLUSIONS: H. pylori alone is not a useful marker for risk of gastric cancer. Screening using serum pepsinogen concentrations and infection with H. pylori-CagA+ is feasible in the general elderly population of Costa Rica but appropriate cut-off values have to be determined based on more clinical data and follow up capacity.Item Estudio longitudinal de mortalidad de adultos costarricenses 1984-2007(Población y Salud en Mesoamérica; Volumen 7, Número 2, 2010) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Antich Montero, DanielSe describen los procedimientos y se presentan algunos resultados del "estudio longitudinal de mortalidad de adultos costarricenses" (ELMAC), consistente en una muestra de cerca de 20.000 costarricenses de 30 o más años de edad del censo de población de 1984 seguidos hasta fines de 2007. El Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC) digitalizó los nombres de la boleta censal de los individuos en la muestra. Procesos informáticos depuraron los nombres y los enlazaron al número único de identificación -el número de cédula- del Registro Civil. El empate se efectuó en el 87% de la muestra. Los individuos identificados se siguieron en las bases de datos del Registro Civil para establecer su sobrevivencia. Se identificaron más de 5.000 defunciones entre el censo de 1984 y diciembre de 2007. Procesos informáticos adicionales enlazaron 92% de estas defunciones con las de las estadísticas vitales del INEC que contienen el dato de la causa de defunción. El patrón de mortalidad de la muestra, que comprende 373.000 personas-años de observación, reproduce bien las tasas de las tablas de mortalidad del país. Las gradientes socioeconómicas de la mortalidad en esta muestra no son sensibles a posibles errores en los empates o en las imputaciones efectuadas. La muestra confirma la excepcionalmente baja mortalidad de los adultos costarricenses, especialmente de los varones. Esta muestra abre la puerta para que se efectúen variedad de análisis de los determinantes socioeconómicos de la mortalidad de adultos en Costa Rica, algo rara vez intentado en un país en desarrollo.Item Major cardiovascular risk factors in Latin America: a comparison with the United States. The Latin American consortium of studies in obesity (LASO)(PLOS ONE, vol.8(1), 2013) Miranda Montero, Jaime J.; Herrera Galindo, Víctor Mauricio; Chirinos Medina, Julio A.; Gómez Gutiérrez, Luis Fernando; Perel, Pablo; Pichardo Estevez, Rafael; González Medina, Angel; Sánchez Abanro, José Ramón; Ferreccio, Catterina; Aguilera Sanhueza, Ximena; Silva, Eglé; Oróstegui, Myriam; Medina Lezama, Josefina; Pérez, Cynthia M.; Suárez, Erick; Ortiz Martínez, Ana Patricia; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Schapochnik, Noberto; Ortiz, Zulma; Ferrante, Daniel; Casas, Juan P.; Bautista Lorenzo, Leonelo EnriqueLimited knowledge on the prevalence and distribution of risk factors impairs the planning and implementation of cardiovascular prevention programs in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. For the last two decades cardiovascular diseases have been the main cause of death in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). [1] Cardiovascular mortality rates continue to increase in most LAC countries, and in those countries where rates have declined the blunting of the trend has been considerably lower than in the United Sates (US). [2]. Data on the distribution of cardiovascular risk factors in LAC region are limited, and the few studies available show significant variation in the levels of prevalence. For instance, the CARMELA study, [3] conducted in seven major urban cities from LAC, reprted markedly different hypertension levels. For instance, hypertension prevalence in Santiago (Chile), Buenos Aires (Argentina), and Barquisimeto (Venezuela), ranged from 24% to 29%, whereas in Quito (Ecuador), Bogotá (Colombia), Mexico City (Mexico), and Lima (Peru) varied from 9% to 13%. Yet, diabetes prevalence in these cities was similar to world’s estimates, around 7%. [3] Differences in rural-urban residence, socioeconomic development, and internal migration patterns could partly explain the contrasting profiles of cardiovascular risk factors, but knowledge on this regard is also very limited. This scarcity of data on the distribution of risk factors and, in turn, on their impact on incidence and mortality hampers efforts to curtail the growing epidemic of cardiovascular disease in LAC. In fact, national and regional health policies have been customarily based on estimates of the burden of risk factors and disease that rely heavily on demographic profiles. [4]. Here we reprt the distribution of cardiovascular risk factors using data from population-based studies from eight LAC countries. We also compare the distribution of cardiovascular risk factors in LAC and the US, as a way to illustrate the current stage of LAC in the process of the epidemiological transition. Insight into the specific differences in the distribution of risk factors in the LAC and US populations is important to foresee future trends in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the region.Item Self-reported versus performance-based measures of physical function: prognostic value for survival(Demographic Research; Volumen 30, Número 7, 2014) Glei, Dana; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Weinstein, Maxine; Goldman, NoreenBackground: Although previous studies have indicated that performance assessments strongly predict future survival, few have evaluated the incremental value in the presence of controls for self-reprted activity and mobility limitations. Objective: We assess and compare the added value of four tests -- walking speed, chair stands, grip strength, and peak expiratory flow (PEF) -- for predicting all-cause mortality. Methods: Using population-based samples of older adults in Costa Rica (n = 2290, aged 60+) and Taiwan (n = 1219, aged 53+), we estimate proportional hazards models of mortality for an approximate five-year period. Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves are used to assess the prognostic value of each performance assessment. Results: Self-reprted measures of physical limitations contribute substantial gains in mortality prediction, whereas performance-based assessments yield modest incremental gains. PEF provides the greatest added value, followed by grip strength. Our results suggest that including more than two performance assessments may provide little improvement in mortality prediction. Conclusions: PEF and grip strength are often simpler to administer in home interview settings, impose less of a burden on some respondents, and, in the presence of self-reprted limitations, appear to be better predictors of mortality than do walking speed or chair stands. Comments: Being unable to perform the test is often a strong predictor of mortality, but these indicators are not well-defined. Exclusion rates vary by the specific task and are likely to depend on the underlying demographic, health, social and cultural characteristics of the sample.