Mortalidad y Morbilidad
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Item Tablas de vida para cálculo actuarial de rentas vitalicias y retiro programado. Costa Rica circa 2000(Población y Salud en Mesoamérica; Volumen 1, Número 2, 2004) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Brenes Camacho, Gilbert; Collado Chaves, AndreaSe presentan las tablas completas de mortalidad de Costa Rica del periodo 1995- 2000 y se describe el procedimiento seguido en su estimación. Este procedimiento incluye una evaluación detallada de la información básica, especialmente de los errores censales de declaración de la edad entre los adultos mayores. Predominan los errores de exageración de la edad, los cuales inflan la población de edades avanzadas, especialmente de los 80 años en adelante. Por ejemplo, la población de 95 años y más de edad del censo está inflada en 22%. Las tablas de vida incluyen una extrapoblación de la mortalidad para edades mayores de 100 años. Con una muestra de alrededor de 7 mil adultos mayores se determina que el patrón de mortalidad de los derecho-habientes de pensión es menor que el de la población general. La esperanza de vida al nacer de hombres y mujeres resultó de 74,6 y 79,4 años, respectivamente y a la edad 60 fue de 20,6 y 23,2 años, respectivamente, en toda la población de Costa Rica, y de 22,0 y 25,3 años entre los derecho-habientes de pensión. Para tomar en cuenta la disminución de la mortalidad que probablemente ocurrirá en el futuro en Costa Rica se recomienda usar la tabla de vida proyectada para 2020-25. Se seleccionó este periodo porque la esperanza de vida a la edad 65 es muy parecida a la estimada para la cohorte de nacidos en 1940, la cual se considera representativa de quienes se pensionarán en el corto y mediano plazo. Se presenta la tabla completa de 2020-25, corregida por la menor mortalidad de los derecho-habientes, para que sea utilizada en el cálculo actuarial de pensiones vitalicias y retiro programado en el periodo 2000-5. La esperanza de vida a la edad 60 en esta tabla resultó de 23,6 para los hombres y 26,8 para las mujeres, es decir, unos tres años más altas que las estimadas para la población de Costa Rica 1995-2000. Se recomienda actualizar estas estimaciones cada 5 años.Item Diabetes mellitus en adultos mayores costarricenses(Población y Salud en Mesoamérica. Revista Electrónica, Vol. 5(1), artículo 2, 2007) Brenes Camacho, Gilbert; Rosero Bixby, LuisPoblación y Salud en Mesoamérica - Volumen 5, número 1, artículo 2, jul - dic 2007 Número especial CRELES - Costa Rica: Estudio de Longevidad y Envejecimiento Saludable http://ccp.ucr.ac.cr/revista/ 2Diabetes mellitus en adultos mayores costarricenses1Gilbert Brenes-Camacho2, Luis Rosero-Bixby3RESUMEN El propósito del artículo es describir la prevalencia de la diabetes mellitus (DM) entre los adultos mayores costarricenses. Se analiza la magnitud de la prevalencia, los problemas de medición de la misma, así como los factores asociados con la enfermedad, la enfermedad controlada, y el tener niveles altos de hemoglobina glicosilada (HbA1C) entre la población sin diagnóstico previo de DM. Una cuarta parte de los adultos mayores de Costa Rica padecen de DM y cerca de la mitad de los que la padecen, no la tienen controlada. Los factores asociados con la prevalencia de la enfermedad son los usuales destacados por la literatura científica: actividad física, obesidad e historia familiar de DM. Se halla evidencia de un posible problema de acceso diferencial a servicios de control de DM, ya que los adultos mayores que habitan fuera de la gran área metropolitana de San José tienen un riesgo menor de tener controlada su enfermedad. Los adultos mayores sin pensión también tienen un riesgo mayor de tener niveles altos de HbA1C.Item Traditional rural dietary pattern and all-cause mortality in a prospective cohort study of elderly Costa Ricans: the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study (CRELES)(The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 2024) Zhang, Yundan; Cortés Ortiz, Mónica V.; Leung, Cindy W.; Baylin, Ana; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Ruiz Narváez, Edward A.Costa Rica, as many other Latin American countries, is experiencing a fast demographic aging. It is estimated that by 2030, 18.5% of the population, or almost 1 of every 5 Costa Ricans, will be 60 y or older, compared with 7.9% or 1 of every 13 Costa Ricans in 1999 [1]. As the population ages, chronic health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and neurodegenerative disorders are expected to increase in prevalence posing growing challenges to the health of the Costa Rican population. With the demographic shift toward an aging population, there is an urgent need to study determinants of longevity and healthy aging. Diet—as part of a healthy lifestyle—is a key modifiable factor that may help to minimize the burden of age-related health conditions. Beans are a major source of protein and fiber in Costa Rican adults and part of traditional diets in most Latin American countries. High bean consumption has been found associated with a protective cardiometabolic prolife such as low total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol [2,3]. In the Costa Rican population specifically, intake of beans has been associated with lower risk of nonfatal myocardial infarction in middle-aged adults [4]. We recently reported that a traditional Costa Rican rural dietary pattern, rich in beans and rice, was associated with longer leukocyte telomeres—a marker of biologic aging—in Costa Rican adults 60 y and older [5]. However, no studies have examined whether adherence to a traditional diet in elderly Costa Ricans may also be associated with lower mortality. Because of the nutrition transition (i.e., a shift from traditional diets to an increased consumption of processed foods highs in sugars, fats, and salt) experienced by Costa Rica in the last decades [4,6,7], it is essential to evaluate the potential impact of traditional diets on promoting healthy aging and longevity within an aging population. In this study, we assessed the association between a traditional rural dietary pattern, as well as their major food components beans and rice, and all-cause mortality among elderly Costa Ricans aged 60 y and older at baseline. We hypothesized that higher scores on the traditional dietary pattern are associated with lower all-cause mortality in elderly Costa Ricans. We also assessed whether additional dietary patterns may be associated with all-cause mortality. We used longitudinal and nationally representative data from the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study (CRELES).Item The vanishing advantage of longevity in Nicoya, Costa Rica: A cohort shif(Demographic Research, vol.49 (27, 2023) Rosero Bixby, LuisBACKGROUND The Nicoya region in Costa Rica has been identified as one of a handful of hotspots of extreme longevity. The evidence supporting this status comes mostly from observing the 1990 and 2000 decades and cohorts born before 1930. OBJECTIVE To determine how the longevity advantage of older men in Nicoya has progressed in the period 1990 to 2020 and in cohorts born from 1900 to 1950. METHODS Remaining length of life and adult mortality were estimated using new public administrative records from the electoral system and a Gompertz regression model. A new nationwide survival-time database of 550,000 adult Costa Ricans who were alive at any point during 1990–2020 was put together. RESULTS The longevity advantage of Nicoya is disappearing in a trend driven mostly by cohort effects. While Nicoyan males born in 1905 had 33% lower adult mortality rates than other Costa Ricans, those born in 1945 had 10% higher rates. The original geographic hotspot of low elderly mortality, coined the Nicoya blue zone, has decreased to a small area south of the peninsula around the corridor from Hojancha inland to the beach town of Sámara. However, Nicoyans born before 1930 who are still alive continue to show exceptionally high longevity. CONCLUSIONS Surviving Nicoyan males born before 1930 are exceptional human beings living longer than expected lives. Not so for more recent cohorts. The window of opportunity to meet and study pre-1930 individuals is closing.Item Epigenome-Wide Association Study and Epigenetic Age Acceleration Associated with Cigarette Smoking among Costa Rican Adults(Scientific Reports, Vol. 12 Núm, 2022) Cárdenas, Andrés; Ecker, Simone; Fadadu, Raj P.; Huen, Karen; Orozco, Allan; McEwen, Lisa M.; Engelbrecht, Hannah Ruth; Gladish, Nicole; Kobor, Michael S.; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Dow, William H.; Rehkopf, David H.Smoking-associated DNA methylation (DNAm) signatures are reproducible among studies of mostly European descent, with mixed evidence if smoking accelerates epigenetic aging and its relationship to longevity. We evaluated smoking-associated DNAm signatures in the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging (CRELES), including participants from the high longevity region of Nicoya. We measured genome-wide DNAm in leukocytes, tested Epigenetic Age Acceleration (EAA) from five clocks and estimates of telomere length (DNAmTL), and examined effect modification by the high longevity region. 489 participants had a mean (SD) age of 79.4 (10.8) years, and 18% were from Nicoya. Overall, 7.6% reported currently smoking, 35% were former smokers, and 57.4% never smoked. 46 CpGs and five regions (e.g. AHRR, SCARNA6/SNORD39, SNORA20, and F2RL3) were differentially methylated for current smokers. Former smokers had increased Horvath’s EAA (1.69-years; 95% CI 0.72, 2.67), Hannum’s EAA (0.77-years; 95% CI 0.01, 1.52), GrimAge (2.34-years; 95% CI1.66, 3.02), extrinsic EAA (1.27-years; 95% CI 0.34, 2.21), intrinsic EAA (1.03-years; 95% CI 0.12, 1.94) and shorter DNAmTL (− 0.04-kb; 95% CI − 0.08, − 0.01) relative to non-smokers. There was no evidence of effect modification among residents of Nicoya. Our findings recapitulate previously reported and novel smoking-associated DNAm changes in a Latino cohort.Item Derivation, internal validation, and recalibration of a cardiovascular risk score for Latin America and the Caribbean (Globorisk-LAC): A pooled analysis of cohort studies(The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 9, 2022) Stern, Dalia; Hambleton, Ian R.; Lotufo, Paulo Andrade; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Hennis, Anselm; Ferreccio, Catterina; Irazola, Vilma; Perel, Pablo; Gregg, Edward W.; Aguilar Salinas, Carlos Alberto; Álvarez Vaz, Ramón; Amadio, Marselle Bevilacqua; Baccino, Cecilia; Bambs S., Claudia; Bastos, João Luiz Dornelles; Beckles, Gloria; Bernabé Ortiz, Antonio; Bernardo, Carla; Bloch, Katia Vergetti; Blümel, Juan Enrique; Boggia, José G.; Borges, Pollyana Kássia de Oliveira; Bravo, Miguel; Brenes Camacho, Gilbert; Carbajal, Horacio A.; Casas Vásquez, Paola; Castillo Rascón, María Susana; Ceballos, Blanca H.; Colpani, Verônica; Cooper, Jackie A.; Cortés, Sandra; Cortés Valencia, Adrián; de Sá Cunha, Roberto; d'Orsi, Eleonora; Dow, William H.; Espeche, Walter G.; Fuchs, Flavio Danni; Pereira Costa Fuchs, Sandra Cristina; Godoy Agostinho Gimeno, Suely; Gómez Velasco, Donaji Verónica; González Chica, David Alejandro; González Villalpando, Clicerio; González Villalpando, María Elena; Grazioli, Gonzalo; Guerra, Ricardo Oliveira; Gutierrez, Laura E.; Herkenhoff Vieira, Fernando Luiz; Horimoto, Andrea Roseli Vancan Russo; Huidobro Muñoz, Laura Andrea; Koch, Elard S.; Lajous Loaeza, Martin; Furtado de Lima e Costa, Maria Fernanda; López Ridaura, Ruy; Campos Cavalcanti Maciel, Álvaro; Maestre, Gladys Elena; Manrique Espinoza, Betty Soledad; Marques, Larissa Pruner; Melgarejo Arias, Jesus David; Mena Camaré, Luis Javier; Mill, Jose Gerardo; Moreira, Leila Beltrami; Muñoz Velandia, Oscar Mauricio; Ono, Lariane Mortean; Oppermann, Karen; Ortiz Saavedra, Pedro José; de Paiva, Karina Mary; Viana Peixoto, Sérgio William; da Costa Pereira, Alexandre; Peres, Karen G.; de Anselmo Peres, Marco Aurelio; Ramírez Palacios, Paula; Rech, Cassiano Ricardo; Rivera Paredez, Berenice; Rodríguez Guerrero, Nohora Inés; Rojas Martínez, Maria Rosalba; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Rubinstein, Adolfo; Ruiz Morales, Álvaro de Jesus; Salazar, Martin R.; Salinas Rodríguez, Aarón; Nájera Salmerón, Jorge Alberto; Sánchez, Ramón Augusto; de Souza e Silva, Nelson Albuquerque; Nogueira da Silva, Thiago Luiz; Smeeth, Liam; Spritzer, Poli Mara; Tartaglione, Fiorella; Tartaglione, Jorge; Tello Rodríguez, Tania; Velázquez Cruz, Rafael; Cohorts Consortium of Latin America and the Caribbean (CC-LAC); Carrillo Larco, Rodrigo Martín; Miranda Montero, Juan J.; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, GoodarzBackground: Risk stratification is a cornerstone of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention and a main strategy proposed to achieve global goals of reducing premature CVD deaths. There are no cardiovascular risk scores based on data from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and it is unknown how well risk scores based on European and North American cohorts represent true risk among LAC populations. Methods: We developed a CVD (including coronary heart disease and stroke) risk score for fatal/non-fatal events using pooled data from 9 prospective cohorts with 21,378 participants and 1,202 events. We developed laboratory based (systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and smoking), and office-based (body mass index replaced total cholesterol and diabetes) models. We used Cox proportional hazards and held back a subset of participants to internally validate our models by estimating Harrell’s C-statistic and calibration slopes. Findings: The C-statistic for the laboratory-based model was 72% (70−74%), the calibration slope was 0.994 (0.934−1.055) among men and 0.852 (0.761−0.942) among women; for the office-based model the C-statistic was 71% (69−72%) and the calibration slope was 1.028 (0.980−1.076) among men and 0.811 (0.663−0.958) among women. In the pooled sample, using a 20% risk threshold, the laboratory-based model had sensitivity of 21.9% and specificity of 94.2%. Lowering the threshold to 10% increased sensitivity to 52.3% and reduced specificity to 78.7%. Interpretation: The cardiovascular risk score herein developed had adequate discrimination and calibration. The Globorisk-LAC would be more appropriate for LAC than the current global or regional risk scores. This work provides a tool to strengthen risk-based cardiovascular prevention in LAC.Item The Effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca Vaccines to Prevent Severe COVID-19 in Costa Rica: Nationwide, Ecological Study of Hospitalization Prevalence(JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, vol.8(5), 2022) Rosero Bixby, LuisBackground: The Costa Rican COVID-19 vaccination program has used Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. Real-world estimates of the effectiveness of these vaccines to prevent hospitalizations range from 90%-98% for two doses and from 70%-91% for a single dose. Almost all of these estimates predate the Delta variant. Objective: The aim of this study is to estimate the dose-dependent effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines to prevent severe illness in real-world conditions in Costa Rica, after the Delta variant became dominant. Methods: This observational study is a secondary analysis of hospitalization prevalence. The sample is all 3.67 million adult residents living in Costa Rica by mid-2021. The study is based on public aggregated data of 5978 COVID-19–related hospital records from September 14, 2021, to October 20, 2021, and 6.1 million vaccination doses administered to determine hospitalization prevalence by dose-specific vaccination status. The intervention retrospectively evaluated is vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech (78%) and Oxford-AstraZeneca (22%). The main outcome studied is being hospitalized. Results: Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization (VEH) was estimated as 93.4% (95% CI 93.0-93.9) for complete vaccination and 76.7% (95% CI 75.0-78.3) for single-dose vaccination among adults of all ages. VEH was lower and more uncertain among older adults aged ≥58 years: 92% (95% CI 91%-93%) for those who had received full vaccination and 64% (95% CI 58%-69%) for those who had received partial vaccination. Single-dose VEH declined over time during the study period, especially in the older age group. Estimates were sensitive to possible errors in the population count used to determine the residual number of unvaccinated people when vaccine coverage is high. Conclusions: The Costa Rican COVID-19 vaccination program that administered Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines seems to be highly effective at preventing COVID-19–related hospitalization after the Delta variant became dominant. Even a single dose seems to provide some degree of protection, which is good news for people whose second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was postponed several weeks to more rapidly increase the number of people vaccinated with a first dose. Timely monitoring of vaccine effectiveness is important to detect eventual failures and motivate the public to get vaccinated by providing information regarding the effectiveness of the vaccines.Item The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers(Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 20 (online first), 2022) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Miller, TimothyThe reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the e ects of infection control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in 53 countries.Item Helicobacter pylori infection and serum pepsinogen concentrations in an elderly population representative of Costa Rica(Población y Salud en Mesoamérica 19(2), 2022) Une, Clas Allan; Malespín Bendaña, Wendy Karina; Ramírez Mayorga, Vanessa; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Sierra Ramos, RafaelaINTRODUCTION: Costa Rica has among the highest mortality rates from gastric cancer in the world, largely due to late detection. It is therefore important that economically and logistically sustainable screening is implemented in order to detect risk of developing cancer. We have previously shown that low pepsinogen (PG) values and infection with Helicobacter pylori-CagA+ are associated with risk of gastric atrophy and cancer in Costa Rican populations. OBJECTIVES: To determine how markers for gastric cancer risk are distributed in an elderly population representative of Costa Rica in order to design a screening strategy. METHODS: The population studied consists of 2,652 participants in a nationally representative survey of ageing. Information concerning epidemiologic, demographic, nutritional and life style factors is available. Serum PG concentrations as well as H. pylori and CagA status were determined by serology. Possible associations were determined by regression analyses. RESULTS: Antibodies to H. pylori were present in 72% of the population and of those, 58% were CagA positive. Infection with H. pylori was associated with higher PGI concentrations (p=0.000) and infection with H. pylori-CagA+ with lower PGI concentrations (p=0.025). Both showed association with lower PGI/PGII (p=0.006 and p=0.000). Higher age was associated with lower prevalence of H. pylori infection (OR=0.98; p=0.000) and CagA+ (OR=0.98; p=0.000) but not with PG values. Regions with high risk of gastric cancer showed lower PGI (p=0.004) and PGI/PGII values (p=0.021) as well as higher prevalence of H. pylori infection (OR=1.39; p=0.013) but not CagA+. Using cut-off values of PGI<100 μg/L and PGI/PGII<2.0, 2.5 and 3.0, 7-15% of the population would be considered at risk. CONCLUSIONS: H. pylori alone is not a useful marker for risk of gastric cancer. Screening using serum pepsinogen concentrations and infection with H. pylori-CagA+ is feasible in the general elderly population of Costa Rica but appropriate cut-off values have to be determined based on more clinical data and follow up capacity.Item Confirmación histológica del diagnóstico de cáncer cérvico uterino en Costa Rica 1982-84(Acta Médica Costarricense, Vol. 33; No, 3, 1990) Oberle, Mark W.; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Saeed, MekbelUn panel de patólogos costarricenses efectuó un análisis histológico de las biopsias de 677 casos de cáncer de cuello de útero in situ e invasor diagnosticados en Costa Rica en 1982 - 1984. El panel confirmó el diagnóstico inicial del 81% de los casos de cáncer in situ y del 72% de los casos de cáncer invasor. El panel redigo la severidad del diagnóstico a displasia u otra lesión no cancerosa en el 12% de los casos de cáncer in situ y en el 3% de los casos de cáncer invasor. El 8% de los casos de cáncer invasor fueron reclasificados como in situ. Un 9% adicional podrían ser reclasificados en el mismo sentido, pero hay dudas sobre el diagnóstico definitivo. El error más grave ocurrió en 3% de los casos Inicialmente diagnosticados como de cáncer in situ los cuales fueron reclasificados por el panel como cáncer invasor, pero este error probablemente no afectó el tratamiento de las pacientes. Las modificaciones en el diagnóstico obtenidos en el presente estudio pueden derivarse de un examen más cuidadoso efectuado por el panel o de la dificultad propia del diagnóstico histológico del cáncer de cuello de útero.
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